10 Mar (NucNet): Global nuclear energy generation will increase at a rate of 1.9 percent a year between 2016 and 2035, mostly driven by growth in Asia where China’s annual growth rate could be above 11 percent, a report by British Petroleum (BP) shows.
The BP Energy Outlook, which outlines the “most likely” path for the global energy landscape over the next 20 years, says with growth of 1.9 percent a year global nuclear generation will increase cumulatively by about 50 percent from 2014 and 2035, the report says.
The report says growth of China’s nuclear output is expected to be 11.2 percent a year, which means nuclear output will more than double by 2020 and will increase nine-fold by 2035. Under this scenario, China will account for 31 percent of global nuclear generation in 2035.
The nuclear reactor fleet in Japan is expected to reach 60 percent of its 2010 operation levels by 2020, the report says. Japan’s reactors were shut down for safety checks following the March 2011 accident at Fukushima-Daiichi and only two have returned to full commercial operation.
In the Middle East, the share of nuclear in primary energy will rise to about two percent from zero today.
According to BP’s projections, Brazil will see a 113 percent increase in its nuclear output by 2035. The country is expected to become a net energy exporter by 2020 as increased production outweighs growth in domestic energy demand, the report says.
Nuclear energy consumption in Russia will grow by 26 percent by 2035, while the share of nuclear in energy generation will increase from 14 percent today to 16 percent in 2035.
In the EU and North America, the report says nuclear generation will decline by 29 percent and 13 percent respectively by 2035, primarily due to plant ageing, decommissioning, investment problems, and political challenges.
Under BP’s “base case scenario”, the global economy is expected to “more than double” in size by 2035 and energy consumption is projected to increase by 34 percent for the same period. World energy demand is expected to grow by 1.4 percent annually from 2014 to 2035, with 95 percent of the increase coming from countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
According to the report, by 2035 non-fossil fuels will make up 21 percent of global primary energy compared to 14 percent today. Fossil fuels are expected to remain the dominant form of energy behind global expansion, providing around 60 percent of the additional energy and accounting for almost 80 percent of total energy supplies in 2035. Energy generation from renewables is projected to increase by a “staggering” 285 percent until 2035, growing at an annual rate of 6.6 percent.
The report is online: http://on.bp.com/1SGMKOh
